| 引用本文: |
张彤, 刘军.基于中医五运六气理论与气象因素探讨流感发病规律——以广东、湖南、黑龙江三省为例[J].湖南中医药大学学报,2026,46(2):365-373[点击复制] |
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| 基于中医五运六气理论与气象因素探讨流感发病规律——以广东、湖南、黑龙江三省为例 |
| 张彤,刘军 |
| (湖南中医药大学, 湖南 长沙 410208) |
| 摘要: |
| 目的 探讨中国三省（广东省、湖南省、黑龙江省）流行性感冒（简称流感）发病与五运六气变化、气象因素的关联性，明确区域差异化影响特征。方法 收集2015年4月5日至2024年3月24日，广东省、湖南省、黑龙江省的流感样病例及同期气象数据。将流感样病例进一步按照对应时段内的主气、客气、客主加临及司天在泉进行归类分析，采用单样本非参数检验（卡方检验）进行多组间比较，并通过Spearman相关性分析探讨流感样病例与气象因素的相关性。结果 3个省份流感暴发在不同运气时段的分布差异具有统计学意义（卡方检验，P＜0.001），且流感发病与气象因子的相关性呈现明显区域差异性。其中，黑龙江省流感发病主要受气温及海平面压力影响，而广东省和湖南省则表现为温度、露点温度及风速等多种气象因素的协同作用。结论 广东省、湖南省和黑龙江省流感发病与五运六气节律变化及气象因素之间存在显著相关性。在多因素共同作用背景下，五运六气所反映的气候节律异常可能对流感流行起到促进作用。基于区域运气特征与气象因素构建流感发病预测框架，有助于识别高风险时段，为流感的前瞻性监测与精准防控提供参考依据。 |
| 关键词: 流行性感冒 五运六气 司天在泉 气象因素 相关性分析 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-070X.2026.02.021 |
| 投稿时间：2025-09-16 |
| 基金项目:湖南省自然科学基金部门联合基金项目(2024JJ8359);湖南省教育厅科研项目(22B0376);湖南省中医药管理局重点项目(A2024003)。 |
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| Incidence patterns of influenza-like illness based on the five movements and six qi theory in TCM and meteorological factors: A case study of Guangdong, Hunan, and Heilongjiang provinces |
| ZHANG Tong, LIU Jun |
| (Hunan University of Chinese Medicine, Changsha, Hunan 410208, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To explore the relationship between influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence in three Chinese provinces (Guangdong, Hunan, and Heilongjiang) and the changes in the five movements and six qi as well as meteorological factors, so as to clarify regional differences in their impact characteristics. Methods This study collected data on ILI cases and corresponding meteorological data from Guangdong, Hunan, and Heilongjiang provinces from April 5, 2015, to March 24, 2024. Influenza-like illness cases were further classified according to the primary Qi, guest Qi, combined guest-primary Qi with transient Qi, and the controlling Qi periods. A single-sample non-parametric test (Chi-square test) was used to compare differences across multiple qi periods, and Spearman's correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between ILI cases and meteorological factors. Results The distribution of ILI outbreaks across different qi periods showed statistically significant differences (Chi-square test, P<0.001), and the correlation between ILI incidence and meteorological factors displayed distinct regional variations. In Heilongjiang, ILI incidence was primarily influenced by temperature and sea-level pressure, while in Guangdong and Hunan, multiple meteorological factors, such as temperature, dew point, and wind speed, exhibited a synergistic effect. Conclusion ILI incidence in Guangdong, Hunan, and Heilongjiang is significantly associated with the rhythmic changes of the five movements and six qi as well as meteorological factors. Under the combined influence of multiple factors, anomalies in the climate rhythm, as reflected in the five movements and six qi, may contribute to the spread of ILI. Building a predictive framework for ILI incidence based on regional characteristics of the five movements and six qi and meteorological factors will help identify high-risk periods and provide a basis for proactive surveillance and precise prevention and control of ILI. |
| Key words: influenza five movements and six qi celestial controlling and terrestrial controlling meteorological factors correlation analysis |
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