| 引用本文: |
岳铭坤,李凯,蔡冬华,王灿,周良荣.2022—2030年湖南省卫生健康筹资及其构成变化趋势预测——基于ARIMA模型[J].湖南中医药大学学报,2024,44(2):338-342[点击复制] |
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| 2022—2030年湖南省卫生健康筹资及其构成变化趋势预测——基于ARIMA模型 |
| 岳铭坤,李凯,蔡冬华,王灿,周良荣 |
| (湖南中医药大学人文与管理学院, 湖南 长沙 410208;湖南省卫生健康委员会, 湖南 长沙 410008) |
| 摘要: |
| 目的 通过对2010—2021年湖南省卫生筹资总额（来源法）变化趋势及构成的分析，利用ARIMA模型对2022—2030年湖南省卫生健康筹资及其构成进行预测与分析，为湖南省乃至全国卫生健康发展宏观政策制定提供科学合理的数据支撑。方法 基于ARIMA模型，在对湖南省2010—2021年卫生筹资总额及其筹资构成进行训练、拟合的基础上，对未来九年湖南省卫生健康及其构成进行预测。结果 截至2030年，湖南省卫生健康筹资规模将达到4 943.65亿元，其中，政府卫生筹资1 334.37亿元，占26.99%；社会卫生筹资2 350.21亿元，占47.54%；个人现金卫生筹资1 278.76亿元，占25.87%。筹资结构中，相对全国平均水平呈现“一低两高”，即政府卫生筹资占比（28.71%）低于全国均值、社会卫生筹资和个人现金筹资占比（45.80%、25.49%）高于全国均值。结论 持续加大政府投入力度，使其投入增幅超过全社会卫生健康筹资增幅；进一步优化社会资本筹资环境，持续保障社会卫生筹资力度；有效控制医疗费用不合理增长，降低居民个人疾病经济负担等，才能进一步优化卫生筹资结构，推动医药卫生体制改革和卫生健康事业高质量发展。 |
| 关键词: 卫生健康筹资 变化趋势 筹资结构 预测 ARIMA模型 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1674-070X.2024.02.024 |
| 投稿时间：2023-09-01 |
| 基金项目:湖南省卫生经济与信息学会课题（2022B10）；湖南中医药大学研究生创新课题项目（2022CX21）。 |
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| Prediction of changing trends of health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2022 to 2030—Based on ARIMA model |
| YUE Mingkun,LI Kai,CAI Donghua,WANG Can,ZHOU Liangrong |
| (School of Humanities and Management, Hunan University of Chinese Medicine, Changsha, Hunan 410208, China;Hunan Provincial Health Commission, Changsha, Hunan 410008, China) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the changing trends and structure of the total amount of health financing(source method in Hunan from 2010 to 2021, and to predict and analyze the health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2022 to 2030 using the ARIMA model, aiming to provide scientific and reasonable data basis for macropolicy formulation of healthcare development in Hunan Province and even the whole nation.Methods The ARIMA model was applied to training and fitting the total amount of health financing and its structure in Hunan from 2010 to 2021, and thus predicting their trends for the next nine years.Results By2030, the health financing in Hunan will have reached 494.365 billion yuan, of which the government health financing will have reached 133.437 billion yuan, accounting for 26.99%, the social health financing 235.021 billion yuan, accounting for 47.54%, and the individual cash health financing 127.876 billion yuan, accounting for 25.87%. In the financing structure, there were one "lower" and two "highers", that is, the proportion of government health financing(28.71%) was lower than that in the national average, and the proportions of social health financing(45.80%) and individual cash financing(25.49%) were higher than those in the national average.Conclusion The government health financing should be increased continuously, the increase of which should exceed that of the social health financing. Environment for social financing should be further optimized to ensure the social health financing.Effective measures should be taken to control the unreasonable growth of medical expenses and reduce the economic burden of the residents in healthcare. Through these measures, the structure of health financing can be further optimized, and the medical and health system reform can be promoted to ensure the high-quality development of healthcare. |
| Key words: health financing changing trends financing structure prediction ARIMA model |
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